STUDY 06
The Cost of Waiting
"Separating the length of a wait from the uncertainty of it."
PUBLISHEDUrban Mobility2025
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Context
A study within the Urban Mobility area of Dr. Okafor's wider research on daily mobility and access to opportunity, conducted in Lagos over Jan–Jul 2025.
The Question
QUESTION
"Does waiting time affect perceived access differently from travel time?"
Hypothesis
HYPOTHESIS
Two journeys of equal duration may produce different experiences of accessibility when uncertainty and waiting are distributed differently.
Method
Data
Findings
Uncertainty during a wait reduces perceived accessibility more than the wait's length alone.
STRONG CONFIDENCEDataset
Sample
6,240 timed waits
Method
Variable
wait uncertainty rating vs. perceived accessibility
Observation
Waits with an unpredictable end time were rated as far less acceptable than longer waits with a known, reliable arrival.
Two equal-duration journeys were rated very differently once wait uncertainty was accounted for.
STRONG CONFIDENCEDataset
Sample
640 residents
Method
Variable
duration-matched journey pairs
Observation
Matched pairs of journeys with identical total duration diverged sharply in reported accessibility depending on how much of that time was spent waiting without information.
What We Know / What We Still Don't Know
WHAT WE KNOW
Waiting is not neutral time — its predictability changes its cost to the traveller independent of its length.
WHAT WE STILL DON'T KNOW
Whether real-time arrival information, if introduced at scale, would close this gap or simply relocate it.