AMARA OKAFOR
FOLLOW THE QUESTION.
STUDY 01

Measuring the Invisible Journey

"Why the parts of a commute that go unmeasured shape how accessible it feels."

PUBLISHEDUrban Mobility2022
Location
Lagos
Period
Jan–Jun 2022
Research Area
Urban Mobility
SIZE: WIDTH:

Context

A study within the Urban Mobility area of Dr. Okafor's wider research on daily mobility and access to opportunity, conducted in Lagos over Jan–Jun 2022.

The Question

QUESTION

"What does a travel-time figure leave out of a commuter's actual experience of a journey?"

Hypothesis

HYPOTHESIS

The parts of a journey that standard transport data doesn't measure — waiting, transferring, uncertainty — carry as much weight in how accessible a trip feels as the measured travel time itself.

Method

Data

Findings

Travel time alone does not explain perceived accessibility.

STRONG CONFIDENCE
Sample
640 residents, 12,480 journeys
Variable
perceived difficulty vs. measured travel time
Observation
Journeys of near-identical duration were rated very differently in difficulty, largely explained by waiting time and number of transfers.

Unmeasured time made up nearly a third of the average commute.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE
Sample
640 residents, 12,480 journeys
Variable
waiting and transfer time share
Observation
Waiting and transfer time together accounted for roughly 30% of total journey time on average, rising sharply for multi-leg trips.

What We Know / What We Still Don't Know

WHAT WE KNOW

Standard travel-time measurements systematically understate what a journey costs a commuter, because they leave out waiting, transfers and uncertainty.

WHAT WE STILL DON'T KNOW

Whether the same gap holds in cities with more formalised transit, where waiting is more predictable.

Publication