STUDY 08
The Shape of a Commute
"Modelling a commute as a shape, not a single number."
DRAFTSpatial Behaviour2026
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Context
A study within the Spatial Behaviour area of Dr. Okafor's wider research on daily mobility and access to opportunity, conducted in Lagos over 2026 (ongoing).
The Question
QUESTION
"What is lost when a whole commute is reduced to one average travel time?"
Hypothesis
HYPOTHESIS
Representing a commute as a sequence of legs, waits and transfers — a shape — reveals stress points that a single average duration conceals.
Method
Data
Findings
Commutes with an identical average duration can have very different shapes.
PRELIMINARY CONFIDENCEDataset
Sample
640 residents
Method
Variable
commute shape clustering
Observation
Early clustering of journey shapes suggests at least three distinct commute patterns hiding behind similar average durations.
What We Know / What We Still Don't Know
WHAT WE KNOW
A single average duration hides meaningfully different commute experiences.
WHAT WE STILL DON'T KNOW
Whether these shape clusters map onto neighbourhood or income differences, or cut across them.
Publication
This study has not yet produced a publication record.