STUDY 10
The Geography of Delay
"Mapping where delay concentrates, and asking who absorbs it."
ANALYSISPublic Systems2026
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Context
A study within the Public Systems area of Dr. Okafor's wider research on daily mobility and access to opportunity, conducted in Lagos over 2025–2026.
The Question
QUESTION
"Is delay distributed evenly across a city, or does it concentrate in specific places and fall on specific people?"
Hypothesis
HYPOTHESIS
Delay is not randomly distributed — it concentrates at specific network chokepoints that disproportionately affect lower-income neighbourhoods.
Method
Data
Findings
Delay concentrates sharply at a small number of network chokepoints.
MODERATE CONFIDENCEDataset
Sample
9,120 mapped segments
Method
Variable
redundancy index by district
Observation
Outer mainland and peri-urban districts showed markedly lower network redundancy, meaning a single disruption has an outsized effect on journeys there.
What We Know / What We Still Don't Know
WHAT WE KNOW
A small number of structurally fragile points in the network account for a disproportionate share of delay.
WHAT WE STILL DON'T KNOW
Whether targeted investment at these points would reduce delay city-wide or simply shift it elsewhere.
Publication
This study has not yet produced a publication record.